Statistics Wales demography newsletter: June 2025
June 2025 newsletter for users of Welsh statistics on the latest population, migration, household and Welsh language statistics.
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User engagement and update on Welsh Government subnational population and household projections
Our user engagement survey for subnational population and household projections for Wales has now closed. Many thanks to all those who responded.
We are currently analysing the feedback, and plan to publish a blog summarising your feedback and our actions arising from this. The aim is still to publish 2022-based projections in late summer/early autumn, with population and household projections for local authorities being published first, followed by national park projections.
We will continue to provide updates about the subnational projections in these newsletters, via email, and on our release calendar.
Admin-based population estimates
On 19 May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published an update on admin-based population estimates alongside its quarterly population and migration statistics update.
The ONS assessed the readiness of admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) (ONS) to become the official estimates of the population using the criteria published in January. They are confident that ABPEs will be the best method for measuring the population in the future. However, more work is still needed to successfully meet the acceptance criteria particularly around:
- meeting the needs of users
- data supply and quality
- coherence and comparability.
The additional planned work will also increase ONS’ confidence of the ABPEs being badged as accredited official statistics (Office for Statistics Regulation) when the Office for Statistics Regulation carries out its assessment. They intend to re-assess the criteria again in spring 2026 with the aim of the ABPEs becoming the official estimates of the population in summer 2026.
In the summer 2025, the ONS will publish official population estimates for Wales and England. These will be the mid-year estimates for mid-2024 along with revised estimates for mid-2022 and mid-2023, and the methodology will be unchanged from their last publication. ONS’ intention is to publish updated ABPEs for mid-2022 to mid-2024 alongside the official estimates to allow comparisons to be made.
Combining and comparing census figures across the UK
On 10 April, the ONS published short guidance on combining and comparing census figures across the UK. A single UK census date was the intention for 2021, but the circumstances of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to Scotland’s census being moved a year. This means that Census Day was 21 March 2021 in Wales, England and Northern Ireland, but 20 March 2022 in Scotland. This difference in the timing of data collection makes the production of UK results more challenging than usual.
The method ONS has developed is to create statistics for Scotland for March 2021 and add them to the equivalent census totals from the rest of the UK. Their approach for Scotland is based on interpolation between their 2011 and 2022 censuses, also constraining the results to ensure consistency with their official population and household estimates from 2020 and 2021. They will use this method to create a set of tables at UK and country level, offering insight into how a range of UK statistics may have looked if the censuses had all been in March 2021. The Scotland values will not, however, replace NRS’s Census 2022 results as the definitive census statistics for Scotland.
Estimates of the very old, including centenarians, UK: 2002 to 2023
On 18 March, the ONS published estimates of the very old, including centenarians, for Wales and England from 2002 to 2023. This analysis provides annual mid-year population estimates for people aged 90 years or older by sex and single year of age to 105 years and older. Datasets were produced for Wales and England separately as well as combined.
Long-term international migration estimates
On 22 May, the ONS published provisional long-term international migration figures for the UK. This covers the period year ending June 2012 to year ending December 2024, with some revisions being made to previous years’ data.
Figures will only be available at a UK level. Please refer to the components of change tables on StatsWales for the latest migration estimates for Wales.
Electoral statistics
Work is underway to ensure that the next publication of electoral statistics (ONS) reflects the latest electoral registration and voter eligibility rules in Wales and England. This work will ensure the data collected will be accurate and consistent.
The ONS will provide an update on their plans for the next publication of electoral statistics through their newsletter, quarterly updates over the coming months, and through the ONS release calendar.